Mayhem a 2.5:1 dog? Really?

**BigJim520** · 11-06-2009, 10:23 PM

Shields is anywhere from -277 to -340
Miller is +210 to +260

The rest of fights seem right to me, but that looks like it'd be worth throwing down a little on Mayhem.

http://bestfightodds.com/

**Kundurp** · 11-06-2009, 10:30 PM

Amen to that, I dunno why they're counting him out. Mayhem's dealt with a real grappler before, shields is just taking advantage of opponents with weak ground games.

**Hammafist** · 11-06-2009, 10:55 PM

if i was a betting man (which i am) i would not place a straight bet on him...however what i am doin for tonight is use him to increase the odds factor in a few parlays...

i took a few different parlays my biggest one is mayhem +220, mousasi -500, and werdum -170

mayhem turns it into a +500 bet

**ItBurnzWhenIP** · 11-06-2009, 11:40 PM

^Very nice. I think Mayhem should be a favorite. His sub d is as good as GSP dipped in astroglide and his standup is way better than Shields.

**Hammafist** · 11-07-2009, 12:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ItBurnzWhenIP

^Very nice. I think Mayhem should be a favorite. His sub d is as good as GSP dipped in astroglide and his standup is way better than Shields.

i mean that is jsut my highest yielding bet for tomorrows fight and i found that mathematically if you apply the uncertainty principles to mma and plot them to standard curve...without going into such detail now...the odds off winning a higher stakes parlay are extremely similair to taking a staright bet with odd that are 3:1 and under...this principle im also starting to find is applying to sports with less factor or palyers over time... like it doesnt work for baseball or football or any large team sport but does work slighlty with basketball (due to only 5 players) and suprisingly not with boxing bc even thought there are two factors the idea that it goes over twelve rounds evens it out...

maybe when i get around to it ill post up all the math and actual process i used bc i do win alot of the time...

basically i use similiar mathematical principles whne i worked for a commodities trader where you try to actaully quantify mannerisms, perception and pshychology among other actualy quantifiable facters (like productivy, demand etc.) to market reactions and use simple statistacal analysis to plot future results...

if anyone know abotu trading its an offshoot of the abc method combined with bueno de mesquita principles

**aussjj** · 11-07-2009, 01:43 AM

I don't understand it. Mayhem had 1:1 odds with Jacare on BOTH fights and Jacare is better than Shields at everything.

**bigbadroy** · 11-07-2009, 03:52 AM

jukeboxhero · 11-07-2009, 06:00 AM

Good odds for Mayhem. I can see him taking this one.

**Neo_Pop** · 11-07-2009, 06:54 AM

I only see Shields taking it. Am sorry, but Mayhem's act doesn't impress me.

**ItBurnzWhenIP** · 11-07-2009, 11:14 AM

Shields can only finish this fight if he gets lucky and Mayhem does something stupid. He can win a decision though via lay'n'pray. I still think Mayhem will pull it out... Not quite as strongly as I was sure Bowles would knock out Miguel the Hype or Shogun would beat piss-breath... But I've got Mayhem here

**Necknot** · 11-07-2009, 12:38 PM

you can't let Mayhem's antics cloud his skill . I think Miller has fought higher tier ppl than Sheilds , anyway - I'm not that fucking analytical - WAR MAYHEM!!!@

**Beanflicker** · 11-07-2009, 02:01 PM

I guess they are looking at his track record with wrestlers (GSP and Trigg). Plus Shields hasn't lost in like 5 years. I dunno. Definatly worth putting some money on Mayhem. He seems like hes up like a motherfucker for this fight.

**mg_productions** · 11-07-2009, 08:03 PM

Wow.I was putting the bank on Shields winning this fight easily.Apparently I'm buying into the hype.

11-06-2009, 10:23 PM	#1
BigJim520 Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 600 Points: 12,485.81 Bank: 28,381.05 Total Points: 40,866.86 Give Points	Mayhem a 2.5:1 dog? Really? Shields is anywhere from -277 to -340 Miller is +210 to +260 The rest of fights seem right to me, but that looks like it'd be worth throwing down a little on Mayhem. http://bestfightodds.com/

11-06-2009, 10:30 PM	#2
Kundurp Number 1 Jake Fan!!! Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,747 Points: 107,321.99 Bank: 0.00 Total Points: 107,321.99 Give Points	Amen to that, I dunno why they're counting him out. Mayhem's dealt with a real grappler before, shields is just taking advantage of opponents with weak ground games. __________________ "Everyone walks down the path that's in front of them, no one even thinks that if you stray away from the path, you make your own; and that's what I've always tried to do in life." -Sudo Genki

11-06-2009, 10:55 PM	#3
Hammafist Certified Gangsta Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Strong Island Posts: 2,682 Points: 47,184.88 Bank: 0.00 Total Points: 47,184.88 Give Points	if i was a betting man (which i am) i would not place a straight bet on him...however what i am doin for tonight is use him to increase the odds factor in a few parlays... i took a few different parlays my biggest one is mayhem +220, mousasi -500, and werdum -170 mayhem turns it into a +500 bet __________________ I hate this sport I only do it to get my hand raised i'm not a businessman, i'm a business, man

11-07-2009, 01:43 AM	#6
aussjj Warrior of the Wasteland! Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Alaska Posts: 4,817 Points: 80,705.08 Bank: 0.00 Total Points: 80,705.08 Give Points	I don't understand it. Mayhem had 1:1 odds with Jacare on BOTH fights and Jacare is better than Shields at everything. __________________ War... BW - Tokoro, Torres, Warren FW - Omigawa, Hioki, Aldo LW - Aoki, Hansen, Kawajiri, Alvarez WW - GSP, Sakurai, Gono, Condit, Zaromskis MW - Akiyama, Jacare, Henderson, Cung Le LHW - Machida, Mousasi, Shogun, Arona HW - Fedor, Alistair, Barnett, Alltime Favorites - Saku, Igor, Busta, Oleg, Mo Smith, Kondo, Dong Sik Yoon

11-07-2009, 03:52 AM	#7
bigbadroy Ninjabro Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 8,742 Points: 142,923.09 Bank: 32.17 Total Points: 142,955.26 Give Points	__________________ Originally Posted by Neo_Pop The Machida era is a fraud.

11-07-2009, 06:00 AM	#8
jukeboxhero I Like You Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Rochester, NY Posts: 1,542 Points: 54,242.53 Bank: 0.00 Total Points: 54,242.53 Give Points	Good odds for Mayhem. I can see him taking this one. __________________

11-07-2009, 06:54 AM	#9
Neo_Pop Super Saiyan Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Freshoffacopshead. Posts: 7,244 Points: 70,890.60 Bank: 0.00 Total Points: 70,890.60 Give Points	I only see Shields taking it. Am sorry, but Mayhem's act doesn't impress me. __________________ The REAL UFC LHW Champion!

11-07-2009, 12:38 PM	#11
Necknot Dogman Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: The margins of conformity Posts: 288 Points: 32,236.87 Bank: 0.00 Total Points: 32,236.87 Give Points	you can't let Mayhem's antics cloud his skill . I think Miller has fought higher tier ppl than Sheilds , anyway - I'm not that fucking analytical - WAR MAYHEM!!!@ __________________ West Virginia has it's Mothman , Panhandlers got their Skunkape, but I 've got a taser,night vision goggles , cosco rolls of black duct tape .

11-07-2009, 02:01 PM	#12
Beanflicker BIG SEXAAAY Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 6,121 Points: 89,354.91 Bank: 0.00 Total Points: 89,354.91 Give Points	I guess they are looking at his track record with wrestlers (GSP and Trigg). Plus Shields hasn't lost in like 5 years. I dunno. Definatly worth putting some money on Mayhem. He seems like hes up like a motherfucker for this fight. __________________ ^Bean bet against this guy. What a Moron "Ain't no fighters in England! Dey all BUMS!" -James "Lights Out" Toney Blackie Sherrod, talking about a heavyweight contender: “He has everything a boxer needs except speed, stamina, a punch, and ability to take punishment. In other words, he owns a pair of shorts.”

11-07-2009, 08:03 PM	#13
mg_productions Ninjabro Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,412 Points: 14,873.26 Bank: 244,759.45 Total Points: 259,632.71 Give Points	Wow.I was putting the bank on Shields winning this fight easily.Apparently I'm buying into the hype. __________________ Led by its irascible president, foul-mouthed ex-aerobics instructor Dana White, the UFC has turned the blood sport into a global spectacle-Time Magazine Ninjashoes Top Ten Rankings!Blow off Sherdog! http://ninjashoes.net/ninjablog/?cat=7

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